PuntersAdvice Betting Log This betting log will be very selective and usually only one bet will be posted each week. This will be a medium term project that will last for a minimum of 2 years. The opening balance will be 1,000. Stake will be 5% or 10% of the current balance. Markets: win-draw-win over 2.5 goals both teams to score team to win & over 2.5 goals Prices will be taken from 6 bookmakers: Bet365 Ladbrokes Stan James William Hill BetVictor Paddy Power The leagues I will focus on are: English Premier League Spanish Primera Division German Bundesliga Italian Serie A French Ligue 1 Dutch Eredivisie Portuguese Primeira Liga Irish Premier League Norwegian Eliteserien Swedish Allsvenskan Finnish Veikkausliiga Japanese J-League USA Major League Soccer Champions League Europa League On to the opening bet of the log... English Premier League: Southampton v Liverpool -Southampton average 2.59 goals per league game (12/27 Over 2.5 Goals). -Liverpool average 3.89 goals per league game (20/27 Over 2.5 Goals). -Daniel Sturridge has scored in eight consecutive Premier League appearances. -Only four teams have kept fewer clean sheets than Liverpool in the top flight this season (7), three of those teams are in the bottom four. -Southampton have scored in 23 of their 27 league matches this season. -There have been a total of 49 goals scored in each teams last 6 league matches. -There have been over 2.5 goals scored in fifteen of Liverpool’s last seventeen games in the Premier League. -Liverpool have conceded at least two goals in eight of their last ten away matches in the Premier League. -Defensive midfielder Wanyama is absent for Southampton. Bet: Over 2.5 Goals Stake: 50 Bookmaker: BetVictor Odds: 1.75
English Premier League: Everton v Cardiff City -Everton have scored over 1.5 goals in 8 home games this season. -Cardiff have conceded over 1.5 goals in 9 away games this season. -Everton have won 6 from their last 7 home league games. -Everton are undefeated in 21 of their last 22 home matches in the Premier League. -Cardiff have won just one away game all season, lost their last 7, and they have failed to score in eight of their last 10 away matches. -Cardiff have been losing at both half time and full time in 5 of their last 7 away matches in the Premier League. -Center-back Ben Turner could be doubtful for Cardiff. Bet: Everton To Score Over 1.5 Goals Stake: 52 Bookmaker: StanJames Odds: 1.57
English League 1: Wolves v Shrewsbury -Wolves are looking to make it a club record 10 consecutive wins. -Wolves have won their last 9 games by a minimum 2 goal margin with 7 clean sheets. -Shrewsbury have 1 win in their last 11 games. -Shrewsbury have doubts over on-loan Bolton striker Tom Eaves (hamstring), Aaron Wildig (quad) and Luke Summerfield (thigh). Bet: Wolves -1 Asian Handicap Stake: 104 Bookmaker: Bet365 Odds: 1.475
English Premier League: Man Utd v Liverpool -Liverpool have scored at least 3 goals in their last 4 matches in the Premier League. -Liverpool have won their last 4 matches in the Premier League. -Liverpool have been superb in attack, however, and may take a lead into the break having scored 27 more goals in the first half of league matches this season than their hosts. -Liverpool have won 5 of their last 6 league matches, scoring 20 goals and have lost just 4 away league games this season. -Man Utd have lost or drawn 50% of their league matches. -Man Utd have to consider their match against Olympiakos who have just won their domestic league and have a 2 goal advantage in the Champions League and more than likely Man Utd will have to win the CL to be in the competition next season. -Fellani is starting and is far too slow against Liverpools front 6. Liverpool: Mignolet, Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Flanagan, Gerrard, Allen, Henderson, Sterling, Suarez, Sturridge Man Utd: De Gea, Rafael, Jones, Vidic, Evra, Mata, Fellaini, Carrick, Januzaj, Rooney, van Persie Bet: Liverpool To Win Or Draw (Double Chance) Stake: 96 Bookmaker: Bet365 Odds: 1.55
English Premier League: Tottenham v Arsenal -We will round off this weeks bets with the last game in the Premier League between two local teams teams who both have a host of injuries however Tottenham don't have many top quality replacements unlike Arsenal. -Arsenal missing: Diaby, Walcott, Ozil, Ramsey. -Tottenham missing: Lamela, Chiriches, Capoue, Dawson, Dembele. -Tottenham are on a bad run having lost on Thursday to Benfica and are 6 points behind Arsenal in the race for a champions league place having played 1 game more. -Arsenal have won both meetings this season. -Tottenham have conceded 5 goals in each of their home games against Man City and Liverpool and will again be playing with a slightly unusual formation against one of the most technically proficient teams in the league and should be pinned in their own half for much of the game with a lineup that looks to be trying to play counter attacking football which they simply don't have the pace for against this Arsenal side. Tottenham: Lloris; Naughton, Kaboul, Vertonghen, Rose; Sandro; Townsend, Bentaleb, Eriksen, Chadli; Adebayor. Arsenal: Szczesny, Sagna, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Gibbs, Arteta, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Podolski, Cazorla, Giroud. Bet: Arsenal To Win Or Draw (Double Chance) Stake: 54 Bookmaker: Boylesports Odds: 1.4
Everton 2-1 Cardiff City Wolves 0-0 Shrewsbury Man Utd 0-3 Liverpool Tottenham 0-1 Arsenal Balance: 1,037
Champions League: Barcelona v Atletico Madrid -Have played eachother 4 times since 2013, all under 3.5 goals. -Last two meetings finished 0-0. -Atletico have not won at Camp Nou since 2006 and will come to this match to defend and go to the second leg at home with a 0-0 or 1-1 result. -Barcelona have won 2 of their previous 6 Champions League matches against Spanish opposition. -Atletico are undefeated in the Champions League. -Barcelona struggled to break down a tight defensive unit in Espanyol at the weekend, winning 1-0 and will face a similar strategy here. -Atletico's top scorer Diego Costa picked up a knee injury on Monday and is doubtful for this match. Bet: Under 3.5 Goals Stake: 52 Bookmaker: StanJames Odds: 1.44
Correct. 6 bets into the log: Here is a link to a screenshot of an excel file that clearly lists out the profit and loss for each bet: http://oi60.tinypic.com/fxc9hu.jpg Southampton v Liverpool P/L: 37.5 Everton v Cardiff P/L: 29.64 Wolves v Shrewsbury P/L: -104 Man Utd v Liverpool P/L: 52.8 Tottenham v Arsenal 21.6 Barcelona v Atletico Madrid P/L: 22.88 Total Profit/Loss: 60.42 Starting Balance: 1000 Current Balance: 1060.42 Level Stakes ROI: 28.5% Yield: 14.8% Very happy with the progress so far.
Only one loss but it sent you back a few quid and that would have been a banker too. Well done and keep posting. You've some patience . Do you have a figure in your head when your going to cash out , or is it just at the two year mark where you will then call it a day?
No, there is no figure or time at which I will cash out. My actual bankroll is larger as I have built it up over a few years and I only bet 1%-2% with a larger number of bets and therefore increased variance that I would not share with people who don't have good bankroll management as they will lose money even though the bets are profitable to level stakes. All bets I place have a positive expectation in my opinion of course but I will only publicly post selections that I expect to have a very high strike rate for this reason. The bankroll in this log is more a measure of success for casual readers so that after 100 bets it will be very clear that the log is successful and can put that figure into something understandable for everyone rather than only representing success by yield for example which won't mean anything to a lot of readers. It takes me 5 minutes to post the odd tip here and as I will keep coming back to this forum regularly for the other topics so I will almost certainly keep the log going beyond two years.
Nice one. Keep up the log. I'm enjoying it. I doubled your Under 3.5 Goals with Munich unfortunately though